Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and first cancer treatment modality: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Physicians were directed to prioritize using nonsurgical cancer treatment at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to quantify the impact of this policy on the modality of first cancer treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy or no treatment). METHODS: In this population-based study using Ontario data from linked administrative databases, we identified adults diagnosed with cancer from January 2016 to November 2020 and their first cancer treatment received within 1 year postdiagnosis. Segmented Poisson regressions were applied to each modality to estimate the change in mean 1-year recipient volume per thousand patients (rate) at the start of the pandemic (the week of Mar. 15, 2020) and change in the weekly trend in rate during the pandemic (Mar. 15, 2020, to Nov. 7, 2020) relative to before the pandemic (Jan. 3, 2016, to Mar. 14, 2020). RESULTS: We included 321 535 people diagnosed with cancer. During the first week of the COVID-19 pandemic, the mean rate of receiving upfront surgery over the next year declined by 9% (rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.95), and chemotherapy and radiotherapy rates rose by 30% (rate ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.23-1.36) and 13% (rate ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19), respectively. Subsequently, the 1-year rate of upfront surgery increased at 0.4% for each week (rate ratio 1.004, 95% CI 1.002-1.006), and chemotherapy and radiotherapy rates decreased by 0.9% (rate ratio 0.991, 95% CI 0.989-0.994) and 0.4% (rate ratio 0.996, 95% CI 0.994-0.998), respectively, per week. Rates of each modality resumed to prepandemic levels at 24-31 weeks into the pandemic. INTERPRETATION: An immediate and sustained increase in use of nonsurgical therapy as the first cancer treatment occurred during the first 8 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario. Further research is needed to understand the consequences.

Early survival for patients newly diagnosed with cancer during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and early survival among newly diagnosed cancer patients. METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study used linked administrative datasets from Ontario, Canada. Adults (≥18 years) who received a cancer diagnosis between March 15 and December 31, 2020, were included in a pandemic cohort, while those diagnosed during the same dates in 2018/2019 were included in a pre-pandemic cohort. All patients were followed for one full year after the date of diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess survival in relation to the pandemic, patient characteristics at diagnosis, and the modality of first cancer treatment as a time-varying covariate. Interaction terms were explored to measure the pandemic association with survival for each cancer type. RESULTS: Among 179,746 patients, 53,387 (29.7%) were in the pandemic cohort and 37,741 (21.0%) died over the first post-diagnosis year. No association between the pandemic and survival was found when adjusting for patient characteristics at diagnosis (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96-1.01]), while marginally better survival was found for the pandemic cohort when the modality of treatment was additionally considered (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.95-0.99]). When examining each cancer type, only a new melanoma diagnosis was associated with a worse survival in the pandemic cohort (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.05-1.49]). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients able to receive a cancer diagnosis during the pandemic, one-year overall survival was not different than those diagnosed in the previous 2 years. This study highlights the complex nature of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on cancer care.

Predictors of persistent depressive and anxiety symptoms among older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of psychological distress for older adults during a period of reduced access to mental health support. We identified predictors of persistent depressive and anxiety symptoms among older adults throughout the initial 9 months of the pandemic. METHODS: This was a longitudinal study using web-based surveys sent to a convenience sample of Canadians aged ≥55 years. A baseline survey was sent in May 2020, with eight surveys sent monthly between June 2020 and January 2021. Data were separated into three study periods, corresponding to coronavirus case rates. Respondents who met predetermined thresholds for elevated depressive or anxiety symptoms using standardized mental health scales during all three periods were defined as having persistent symptoms. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to compare the risk of persistent symptoms across respondent characteristics selected a priori. RESULTS: There were 835 respondents who answered questions about depressive symptoms and 865 who answered questions about anxiety symptoms across all three study periods. Among those with complete follow-up data, 19.2% (n = 159/827) reported persistent depressive symptoms and 16.4% (n = 140/856) reported persistent anxiety symptoms. Respondents with persistent depressive symptoms were more likely to be women (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 1.71; 95% CI 1.19-2.46), and report multimorbidity (aRR 1.45; 95% CI 1.07-1.97), pre-existing depression (aRR 2.00; 95% CI 1.45-2.77) and pre-existing anxiety (aRR 1.50; 95% CI 1.10-2.06). The same respondent characteristics were correlates of persistently elevated anxiety symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Older women, older adults with pre-existing depression and anxiety, and those with multimorbidity were more likely to report persistent mental health symptoms during the first 9 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. These individuals were known to have elevated risk prior to the pandemic, and expanded interventions targeted to these groups are necessary to adequately address their mental health needs.

Imaging and physician visits at cancer diagnosis: COVID -19 pandemic impact on cancer care.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the provision of diagnostic imaging and physician visits at cancer diagnosis. METHODS: We used administrative databases from Ontario, Canada, to identify MRI/CT/ultrasound scans and in-person/virtual physician visits conducted with cancer patients within 91 days around the date of diagnosis in 2016-2020. In separate segmented regression procedures, we assessed the trends in weekly volume of these services per thousand cancer patients in prepandemic (June 26, 2016 to March 14, 2020), the change in mean volume at the start of the pandemic, and the additional change in weekly volume during the pandemic (March 15, 2020, to September 26, 2020). RESULTS: Totally, 403,561 cancer patients were included. On March 15, 2020 (COVID-19 arrived), mean scan volume decreased by 12.3% (95% CI: 6.4%-17.9%) where ultrasound decreased the most by 31.8% (95% CI: 23.9%-37.0%). Afterward, the volume of all scans increased further by 1.6% per week (95% CI: 1.3%-2.0%), where ultrasound increased the fastest by 2.4% (95% CI: 1.8%-2.9%). Mean in-person visits dropped by 47.4% when COVID-19 started (95% CI: 41.6%-52.6%) while virtual visits rose by 55.15-fold (95% CI: 4927%-6173%). In the pandemic (until September 26, 2020), in-person visits increased each week by 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.2%), but no change was observed for virtual visits (p -value = 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Provision of diagnostic imaging and virtual visits at cancer diagnosis has been increasing since the start of COVID-19 and has exceeded prepandemic utilization levels. Future work should monitor the impact of these shifts on quality of delivered care.

Incident Cancer Detection During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Resource restrictions were established in many jurisdictions to maintain health system capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Disrupted healthcare access likely impacted early cancer detection. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the pandemic on weekly reported cancer incidence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a population-based study involving individuals diagnosed with cancer from September 25, 2016, to September 26, 2020, in Ontario, Canada. Weekly cancer incidence counts were examined using segmented negative binomial regression models. The weekly estimated backlog during the pandemic was calculated by subtracting the observed volume from the projected/expected volume in that week. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 358,487 adult patients with cancer. At the start of the pandemic, there was an immediate 34.3% decline in the estimated mean cancer incidence volume (relative rate, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.57-0.75), followed by a 1% increase in cancer incidence volume in each subsequent week (relative rate, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.001-1.017). Similar trends were found for both screening and nonscreening cancers. The largest immediate declines were seen for melanoma and cervical, endocrinologic, and prostate cancers. For hepatobiliary and lung cancers, there continued to be a weekly decline in incidence during the COVID-19 period. Between March 15 and September 26, 2020, 12,601 fewer individuals were diagnosed with cancer, with an estimated weekly backlog of 450. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that there is a large volume of undetected cancer cases related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Incidence rates have not yet returned to prepandemic levels.

Timeliness and Modality of Treatment for New Cancer Diagnoses During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada.

Importance: The impact of COVID-19 on the modality and timeliness of first-line cancer treatment is unclear yet critical to the planning of subsequent care. Objective: To explore the association of the COVID-19 pandemic with modalities of and wait times for first cancer treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative data was conducted in Ontario, Canada, among adults newly diagnosed with cancer between January 3, 2016, and November 7, 2020. Participants were followed up from date of diagnosis for 1 year, until death, or until June 26, 2021, whichever occurred first, to ensure a minimum of 6-month follow-up time. Exposures: Receiving a cancer diagnosis in the pandemic vs prepandemic period, using March 15, 2020, the date when elective hospital procedures were halted. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was a time-to-event variable describing number of days from date of diagnosis to date of receiving first cancer treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, or radiation) or to being censored. For each treatment modality, a multivariable competing-risk regression model was used to assess the association between time to treatment and COVID-19 period. A secondary continuous outcome was defined for patients who were treated 6 months after diagnosis as the waiting time from date of diagnosis to date of treatment. Results: Among 313 499 patients, the mean (SD) age was 66.4 (14.1) years and 153 679 (49.0%) were male patients. Those who were diagnosed during the pandemic were less likely to receive surgery first (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99) but were more likely to receive chemotherapy (sHR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.23-1.30) or radiotherapy (sHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.20) first. Among patients who received treatment within 6 months from diagnosis (228 755 [73.0%]), their mean (SD) waiting time decreased from 35.1 (37.2) days to 29.5 (33.6) days for surgery, from 43.7 (34.1) days to 38.4 (30.6) days for chemotherapy, and from 55.8 (41.8) days to 49.0 (40.1) days for radiotherapy. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the pandemic was significantly associated with greater use of nonsurgical therapy as initial cancer treatment. Wait times were shorter in the pandemic period for those treated within 6 months of diagnosis. Future work needs to examine how these changes may have affected patient outcomes to inform future pandemic guideline development.

Incident Cancer Detection During Multiple Waves of COVID-19: The Tsunami After the Earthquake.

No population-based study exists to demonstrate the full-spectrum impact of COVID-19 on hindering incident cancer detection in a large cancer system. Building upon our previous publication in JNCCN, we conducted an updated analysis using 12 months of new data accrued in the pandemic era (extending the study period from September 26, 2020, to October 2, 2021) to demonstrate how multiple COVID-19 waves affected the weekly cancer incidence volume in Ontario, Canada, and if we have fully cleared the backlog at the end of each wave.

Cancer Patients First Treated with Chemotherapy: Are They More Likely to Receive Surgery in the Pandemic?

Due to the ramping down of cancer surgery in early pandemic, many newly diagnosed patients received other treatments first. We aimed to quantify the pandemic-related shift in rate of surgery following chemotherapy. This is a retrospective population-based cohort study involving adults diagnosed with cancer between 3 January 2016 and 7 November 2020 in Ontario, Canada who received chemotherapy as first treatment within 6-months of diagnosis. Competing-risks regression models with interaction effects were used to quantify the association between COVID-19 period (receiving a cancer diagnosis before or on/after 15 March 2020) and receipt of surgical reSection 9-months after first chemotherapy. Among 51,653 patients, 8.5% (n = 19,558) of them ultimately underwent surgery 9-months after chemotherapy initiation. Receipt of surgery was higher during the pandemic than before (sHR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.13). Material deprivation was independently associated with lower receipt of surgery (least vs. most deprived quintile: sHR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.17), but did not change with the pandemic. The surgical rate increase was most pronounced for breast cancer (sHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.20). These pandemic-related shifts in cancer treatment requires further evaluations to understand the long-term consequences. Persistent material deprivation-related inequity in cancer surgical access needs to be addressed.

The Changing Face of Cancer Surgery During Multiple Waves of COVID-19.

COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on the provision of cancer surgery, but its impact beyond the first 6 months of the pandemic remains unclear. We used data on 799 220 cancer surgeries performed in Ontario, Canada, during 2018-2021 and segmented regression to address this knowledge gap. With the arrival of the first COVID-19 wave (March 2020), mean cancer surgical volume decreased by 57%. Surgical volume then rose by 2.5% weekly and reached prepandemic levels in 8 months. The surgical backlog after the first wave was 47 639 cases. At the beginning of the second COVID-19 wave (January 2021), mean cancer surgical volume dropped by 22%. Afterward, surgical volume did not actively recover (2-sided P = .25), resulting in a cumulative backlog of 66 376 cases as of August 2021. These data urge the strengthening of the surgical system to quickly clear the backlog in anticipation of a tsunami of newly diagnosed cancer patients in need of surgery.

Restricted family presence for hospitalized surgical patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: How hospital care providers and families navigated ethical tensions and experiences of institutional betrayal.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic restricted family presence in hospitals was a widespread public health intervention to preserve critical resources and mitigate the virus's spread. In this study, we explore the experiences of surgical care providers and family members of hospitalized surgical patients during the period of highly restricted visiting (March 2020 to April 2021) in a large Canadian academic hospital. Thirty-four interviews were completed with hospital providers, family members and members of the hospital's visitor task force. To understand hospital providers' experiences, we highlight the ethical tensions produced by the biomedical and public health ethics frameworks that converged during COVID-19 in hospital providers' bedside practice. Providers grappled with mixed feelings in support of and against restricted visiting, while simultaneously experiencing gaps in resources and care and acting as patient gatekeepers. To understand family members' experiences of communication and care, we use the theory of institutional betrayal to interpret the negative impacts of episodic and systemic communication failures during restricted visiting. Family members of the most vulnerable patients (and patients) experienced short- and long-term effects including anxiety, fear, and refusal of further care. Our analysis draws attention to the complex ways that hospital care providers and families of hospitalized surgical patients sought to establish and reconfigure how trust and patient-centeredness could be achieved under these unprecedented conditions. Practical learnings from this study suggest that if family presence in hospitals must be limited in the future, dedicated personnel for communication and emotional support for patients, families and staff must be prioritized.

Enhancing Outpatient Symptom Management in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer: A Qualitative Analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with head and neck cancer manage a variety of symptoms at home on an outpatient basis. Clinician review alone often leaves patient symptoms undetected and untreated. Standardized symptom assessment using patient-reported outcomes (PROs) has been shown in randomized clinical trials to improve symptom detection and overall survival, although translation into real-world settings remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: To better understand how patients with head and neck cancer cope with cancer-related symptoms and to examine their perspectives on standardized symptom assessment. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, AND SETTING: This was a qualitative analysis using semistructured interviews of patients with head and neck cancer and their caregivers from November 2, 2020, to April 16, 2021, at a regional tertiary center in Canada. Purposive sampling was used to recruit a varied group of participants (cancer subsite, treatment received, sociodemographic factors). Drawing on the Supportive Care Framework, a thematic approach was used to analyze the data. Data analysis was performed from November 2, 2020, to August 2, 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patient perception of ambulatory symptom management and standardized symptom assessment. RESULTS: Among 20 participants (median [range] age, 59.5 [33-74] years; 9 [45%] female; 13 [65%] White individuals), 4 themes were identified: (1) timely physical symptom management, (2) information as a tool for symptom management, (3) barriers to psychosocial support, and (4) external factors magnifying symptom burden. Participants' perceptions of standardized symptom assessment varied. Some individuals described the symptom monitoring process as facilitating self-reflection and symptom detection. Others felt disempowered by the process, particularly when symptom scores were inconsistently reviewed or acted on. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This qualitative analysis provides a novel description of head and neck cancer symptom management from the patient perspective. The 4 identified themes and accompanying recommendations serve as guides for enhanced symptom monitoring.

Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Emergency Department Use for Patients Undergoing Cancer-Directed Surgeries.

Emergency department (ED) use is a concern for surgery patients, physicians and health administrators particularly during a pandemic. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the pandemic on ED use following cancer-directed surgeries. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing cancer-directed surgeries comparing ED use from 7 January 2018 to 14 March 2020 (pre-pandemic) and 15 March 2020 to 27 June 2020 (pandemic) in Ontario, Canada. Logistic regression models were used to (1) determine the association between pandemic vs. pre-pandemic periods and the odds of an ED visit within 30 days after discharge from hospital for surgery and (2) to assess the odds of an ED visit being of high acuity (level 1 and 2 as per the Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale). Of our cohort of 499,008 cancer-directed surgeries, 468,879 occurred during the pre-pandemic period and 30,129 occurred during the pandemic period. Even though there was a substantial decrease in the general population ED rates, after covariate adjustment, there was no significant decrease in ED use among surgical patients (OR 1.002, 95% CI 0.957-1.048). However, the adjusted odds of an ED visit being of high acuity was 23% higher among surgeries occurring during the pandemic (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.33). Although ED visits in the general population decreased substantially during the pandemic, the rate of ED visits did not decrease among those receiving cancer-directed surgery. Moreover, those presenting in the ED post-operatively during the pandemic had significantly higher levels of acuity.

Gender Differences in Mental Health Symptoms Among Canadian Older Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Cross-Sectional Survey.

Background: Older women's mental health may be disproportionally affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to differences in gender roles and living circumstances associating with aging. Methods: We administered an online cross-sectional nationwide survey between May 1st and June 30th, 2020 to a convenience sample of older adults aged ≥55 years. Our outcomes were symptoms of depression, anxiety, and loneliness measured by three standardized scales: the eight-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, the five-item Beck Anxiety Inventory, and the Three-Item Loneliness Scale. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the odds of depression, anxiety and loneliness between men and women, adjusting for relevant confounders. Results: There were 1,541 respondents (67.8% women, mean age 69.3 ± 7.8). 23.3% reported symptoms of depression (29.4% women, 17.0% men), 23.2% reported symptoms of anxiety (26.0% women, 19.0% men), and 28.0% were lonely (31.5% women, 20.9% men). After adjustment for confounders, the odds of reporting depressive symptoms were 2.07 times higher in women compared to men (OR 2.07 [95%CI 1.50-2.87] p < .0001). The odds of reporting anxiety and loneliness were also higher. Conclusions: Older women had twice the odds of reporting depressive symptoms compared to men, an important mental health need that should be considered as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds.

COVID-19 and the Mental Health of Canadian Armed Forces Veterans: A Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: There are no data on the impact of COVID-19 and associated public health measures, including sheltering at home, travel restrictions, and changes in health care provision, on the mental health of older veterans. This information is necessary for government and philanthropic agencies to tailor mental health supports, services, and resources for veterans in the peri- and post-pandemic periods. The objective of this study was to compare mental health symptoms between Canadian Armed Forces (CAFs) veterans and the general Canadian older adult population in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study of older adults in the national Canadian COVID-19 Coping Study. Individuals aged 55 years and older were eligible. A convenience sample of older adults was recruited through a web-based survey administered between May 01, 2020 and June 30, 2020. Canadian Armed Force military service history status (yes/no) was ascertained. The eight-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, the five-item Beck Anxiety Inventory, and the three-item Loneliness Scale were used to measure mental health symptoms. Multivariable logistic regression compared the odds of screening positive for depression, anxiety, and loneliness between veterans and non-veterans. RESULTS: Of 1,541 respondents who answered the final question (87% survey completeness rate), 210 were veterans. Forty percent of veterans met criteria for at least one of the mental health diagnoses compared to 46% of non-veterans (P = .12). The odds of reporting elevated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and loneliness were similar for veteran and non-veteran respondents after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSION: Veterans' report of mental health symptoms was similar to the general population Spring 2020 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although veterans' military training may better prepare them to adapt in the face of a pandemic, additional research is needed to understand the longitudinal impacts on physical and mental health.

Worries, attitudes, and mental health of older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: Canadian and U.S. perspectives.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Differences in older adults' worry, attitudes, and mental health between high-income countries with diverging pandemic responses are largely unknown. We compared COVID-19 worry, attitudes towards governmental responses, and self-reported mental health symptoms among adults aged ≥55 in the United States and Canada early in the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Online cross-sectional survey administered between April 2nd and May 31st in the United States and between May 1st and June 30th, 2020 in Canada. SETTING: Nationally in the United States and Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of older adults aged ≥55. MEASUREMENTS: Likert-type scales measured COVID-19 worry and attitudes towards government support. Three standardized scales assessed mental health symptoms: the eight-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, the five-item Beck Anxiety Inventory, and the three-item UCLA loneliness scale. RESULTS: There were 4453 U.S. respondents (71.7% women; mean age 67.5) and 1549 Canadian (67.6% women; mean age 69.3). More U.S. respondents (71%) were moderately or extremely worried about the pandemic, compared to 52% in Canada. Just 20% of U.S. respondents agreed or strongly agreed that the federal government cared about older adults in their COVID-19 pandemic response, compared to nearly two-thirds of Canadians (63%). U.S. respondents were more likely to report elevated depressive and anxiety symptoms compared to Canadians; 34.2% (32.8-35.6) versus 25.6% (23.3-27.8) for depressive and 30.8% (29.5-32.2) versus 23.7% (21.6-25.9) for anxiety symptoms. The proportion of United States and Canadian respondents who reported loneliness was similar. A greater proportion of women compared to men reported symptoms of depression and anxiety across all age groups in both countries. CONCLUSION: U.S. older adults felt less supported by their federal government and had elevated depressive and anxiety symptoms compared to older adults in Canada during early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health messaging from governments should be clear, consistent, and incorporate support for mental health.

A Risk Model of Admitting Patients With Silent SARS-CoV-2 Infection to Surgery and Development of Severe Postoperative Outcomes and Death: Projections Over 24 Months for 5 Geographical Regions.

OBJECTIVE: To model the risk of admitting silent COVID-19-infected patients to surgery with subsequent risk of severe pulmonary complications and mortality. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: With millions of operations cancelled during the COVID-19 pandemic, pressure is mounting to reopen and increase surgical activity. The risk of admitting patients who have silent SARS-Cov-2 infection to surgery is not well investigated, but surgery on patients with COVID-19 is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to model the risk of operating on nonsymptomatic infected individuals and associated risk of perioperative adverse outcomes and death. METHODS: We developed 2 sets of models to evaluate the risk of admitting silent COVID-19-infected patients to surgery. A static model let the underlying infection rate (R rate) and the gross population-rate of surgery vary. In a stochastic model, the dynamics of the COVID-19 prevalence and a fixed population-rate of surgery was considered. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 90% uncertainty limits. The modelling was applied for high-income regions (eg, United Kingdom (UK), USA (US) and European Union without UK (EU27), and for the World (WORLD) based on the WHO standard population. RESULTS: Both models provided concerning rates of perioperative risk over a 24-months period. For the US, the modelled rates were 92,000 (UI 68,000-124,000) pulmonary complications and almost 30,000 deaths (UI 22,000-40·000), respectively; for Europe, some 131,000 patients (UI 97,000-178,000) with pulmonary complications and close to 47,000 deaths (UI 34,000-63,000) were modelled. For the UK, the model suggested a median daily number of operations on silently infected ranging between 25 and 90, accumulating about 18,700 (UI 13,700-25,300) perioperative pulmonary complications and 6400 (UI 4600-8600) deaths. In high-income regions combined, we estimated around 259,000 (UI 191,000-351,000) pulmonary complications and 89,000 deaths (UI 65,000-120,000). For the WORLD, even low surgery rates estimated a global number of 1.2 million pulmonary complications and 350,000 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The model highlights a considerable risk of admitting patients with silent COVID-19 to surgery with an associated risk for adverse perioperative outcomes and deaths. Strategies to avoid excessive complications and deaths after surgery during the pandemic are needed.